| Our upland bird forecast is based on the simple regional methodology of tracking during season bird densities leading to carry over populations compared to spring nesting/brooding rainfall. Our regional model is based on experience of comparing what others have identified as environmental limiting factors and our own direct, behind our own pointing dogs experience. Within our region winter snowfall amounts and temperatures do not have a measurable or significant causative relationship to potential bird hunting success. Likewise insect cycles have so little variability as to have no direct causative effect relative to fall upland bird hunting. Similar examination of summer temperatures and rainfall further have not shown a correlative cause and effect. Spring rainfall and temperatures relative to the rainfall during the most critical or high frequency nesting and brooding months of May and June does have a direct cause and effect relative to fall bird hunting success. This measurable environmental factor is the most dominate indicator of increase of decrease in bird numbers compared to the previous season as we have yet to detect. If there is a better methodology for our region we are open to it as long as it is verifiable. We have yet to have anyone propose any such indicator better than the spring reproduction period evaluation. |
